This is the time of year when teams start separating themselves from each other and making moves at top-4 seeds or, in some cases, making a run at the NCAA Tournament. Some find games between bubble teams to be more exciting, but I’ll take two top-15 teams battling for seeds any day of the week. This week, it happens to be two Big East teams that are both darkhorses to make Final Four runs, West Virginia and Pittsburgh. Neither team is discussed in the conversation of Final Four favorites, but both have the definite ability to beat any team in the country.
West Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the country lately. They have won 15 of 16, with the lone loss a fluke defeat to Marshall. The Mountaineers, 16-4 overall and 8-0 in the Big East, have defeated the likes of Oklahoma, Villanova, Georgetown, and UCLA. The aforementioned games describe West Virginia perfectly: if they are hitting their threes, they can beat anyone. On the other hand, if they are cold from the arc, they can lose to anyone. The Mountaineers average almost 74 points per game, and allow only 63 per contest. WVU, ranked 27th in the RPI, are the 18th-most efficient offensive team in the country and the 52nd-most efficient defensive team, according to Ken Pomeroy.
Pittsburgh has not really been taken seriously yet this season, even though they have been one of the most impressive teams all year. They started the season 15-0, and have only lost 3 games—by a combined 12 points. The Panthers, currently 17-3 overall and 6-3 in the Big East, don’t have many wins that will “wow” you, but they don’t have any truly horrendous losses either. They are a solid group that won’t get blown out. They put up just under 74 points per game and give up less than 62. Pitt, 9th in the RPI, has the 33rd-most efficient offense and the 7th-most efficient defense.
Pittsburgh is a deep (10 players average at least 10 minutes per game) team that can beat you both inside and outside. And, of course, they play tough, physical defense. On the perimeter, Carl Krauser (16.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.0 spg), as he has for what seems like a decade, leads the way. He moved from the point guard spot to the wing so he could concentrate more on scoring. His scoring efficiency is much improved, and his turnovers have decreased. Splitting time at the point guard position are Ronald Ramon (7.2 ppg, 2.6 apg, 41% 3pt) and Levance Fields (6.0 ppg, 2.4 apg, 43% 3pt). Ramon is more of a jump shooter, while the crafty Fields likes to get into the lane for his points. Part-time starter Antonio Graves (4.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg) is a good defender and can shoot the ball from deep. All four of the aforementioned players can handle the ball if needed. Also on the wing are 6-2 Keith Benjamin (4.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and 6-6 John DeGroat (3.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg). Both players are athletic and can score from the perimeter or off of penetration.
Inside, the Panthers have possibly the most-improved player in the country in 7-footer Aaron Gray (13.7 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg). He is a very good rebounder and is nearly impossible to move off of the block. He is adept at passing out of the double-team and has a nice offensive game with his back to the basket. Freshman Sam Young (8.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been very impressive offensively and is a nice inside-outside player at the forward spot. He is somewhat inconsistent, but is capable of big games. Levon Kendall (7.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.0 bpg) has potential as a scorer up front, as evidenced by his well-publicized 40-point game over the summer against Team USA. Tyrell Biggs (2.3 ppg) is another big body in the frontcourt that provides depth.
West Virginia looks like they could potentially make a repeat Elite Eight run. Even without a legit low-post option, the Mountaineers seem to be able to score against whoever they play. They have at least four players on the floor at all times who can shoot the three and stretch the offense. The Mountaineers may run the most fluid offense in America. Big man Kevin Pittsnogle (19.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 42% 3pt) is an excellent long-range shooter that creates mismatches because of his ability to hit the jumper. He has improved his low-post game, which enables him to score from all over the floor. However, the Mountaineers are a perimeter-oriented team. Mike Gansey (18.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 spg, 60% fg, 48% 3pt) has developed into a star. He might be the frontrunner for the Big East Player of the Year at this point. He is a very good defender and a phenomenal scorer. Sixth man Patrick Beilein (8.4 ppg, 1.3 spg) is an excellent long-range shooter when he is on. Even though he is streaky, he can get hot and carry West Virginia. Johannes Herber (9.3 rpg, 3.7 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.2 spg) is a versatile wing that does a lot of the little things. He can shoot the three, defend several positions, and play inside or outside. He is also the best passer on the team. Frank Young (8.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 spg) is an undersized power forward at 6-5, but he is athletic and creates match-up problems. He is a solid rebounder and defender. Point guard JD Collins (4.4 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg) is very quick and gets the ball to the shooters around the arc. He is a decent defender who does not turn the ball over often. Darris Nichols (3.0 ppg) is yet another perimeter player that sees minutes. He is not much of a shooter, but is quick and is a solid performer.
This is going to be a phenomenal game between two teams that people should take a hard look at when filling out their brackets in March. Both groups are very good defensively and efficient offensively, yet they play contrasting styles. West Virginia is an uptempo group that shoots threes and plays a pressure, 1-3-1 defense. Pittsburgh likes to keep the game at a slow pace and plays physical, man-to-man defense. If you just look at that, it will be an interesting game to watch. As far as match-ups go, they key is Kevin Pittsnogle vs. Aaron Gray. Pittsnogle likes to play on the perimeter as much as he does the post. It is worth seeing if Gray will go out and guard him. On the other hand, Pittsnogle is not a very good rebounder and will have a tough time guarding Gray. Carl Krauser vs. Mike Gansey is also going to be an intriguing battle. Both players are very good all-around performers who can change the game in a variety of ways. With the stars basically canceling each other out, the role players will make the difference. The point guard combo of Ronald Ramon and Levance Fields could be huge factors for Pitt, while Johannes Herber is the x-factor for West Virginia. However, Pitt is much deeper and has several combinations they can utilize at any point in the game. Add the fact that the Panthers are at home, and I think that Pittsburgh is going to come out with a victory. If they defend the perimeter like they have the ability to do, the Panthers will get a much-needed win in the Big East.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 70, West Virginia 66
When I started out 0-3 and said that I was going to run the table the rest of the way, I wasn’t being serious. However, with last week’s victory by George Washington over Xavier, I ran off my sixth straight win to improve my record to 6-3. Led by Maureece Rice, GW made an unbelievable comeback in the second half to pull out a hard-fought win on the road in the Atlantic-10. I think that people have to take the Colonials seriously now. Wish me luck on my 7th-straight victory this week! |
